MIAMI — Typically, contenders size up the eventual NBA champion to measure challenges ahead.
For the Miami Heat, such an approach would be abject hubris in light of a 10th-place finish and 37-45 record.
Instead, with another month to go in the postseason, one the Heat exited three weeks ago, it arguably already is not too early to take stock of where they stand in the East, in the wake of the conference’s playoff chaos and the further drama added by the draft lottery.
Already, we have seen the Cleveland Cavaliers look far less invincible than they stood against the Heat in the first round, exiting in the second.
We have seen Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard and Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum go down with Achilles injuries that cast shadows well into next season.
And we have seen the Philadelphia 76ers aided in their potential recovery from an injury-ravaged season with the No. 3 pick as a result of the lottery, while also seeing East lottery teams Washington, Charlotte, Brooklyn and Toronto failing to cash in on lottery luck of their own.
So where do the Heat stand, beyond home for the summer … and what could be a very long winter ahead, as well?
In a curious spot.
Three weeks ago, as a 37-point loss to the Cavaliers turned into a 55-point loss two days later against Cleveland, the Heat were Sisyphus and the top of the East was the boulder that again appeared poised to knock them down next season to play-in level, at best.
But suddenly, the Cavaliers don’t appear nearly as invincible as their 64-18 regular season or first-round pulverization of the Heat.
And even if Tatum wasn’t going to miss most if not all of next season with his Achilles tear, the Celtics already had luxury-tax questions that assuredly will diminish their arsenal.
Beyond that, the Bucks have their own oversized issues with the loss of Lillard and renewed (if not overstated) uncertainty with Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Yes, the New York Knicks are for real, as seemingly are the Indiana Pacers. And the Detroit Pistons don’t appear as if they’re going anywhere.
And yet if, as they slumped off the court on April 28, the Heat were told the target level for contention next season would be the Knicks, Pacers and Pistons, perhaps it would not have been as bedraggled a retreat into the offseason.
No, the Cavaliers and Celtics are not going anywhere, with talent ample enough to succeed even with reshuffling. And if Antetokounmpo remains, the Bucks have shown an ability to remain afloat with a variety of Giannis rebuilds.
From a Heat perspective, it is a delicate dance not to confuse renewed hope with false hope.
The Heat not only finished 27 games behind the Cavaliers and 24 behind the Celtics, but also behind the Magic, Hawks and Bulls. They weren’t just bad in 2024-25; they were very bad.
In this intervening period, Erik Spoelstra and Pat Riley have spoken of the unique challenges of this past season, primarily the grenade tossed into the locker room by Jimmy Butler ahead of his duck-and-cover departure.
So, yes, there were mitigating factors for the team’s worst record in 10 years.
But this also is a team that with the current Bam Adebayo-Tyler Herro core has landed in the play-in round the past three years, its last direct playoff entry not since 2022.
With Cooper Flagg going west in the lottery, an immediate concern of being caught from beyond by one of the East lottery teams (other than Philadelphia) was alleviated for the Heat. If Antetokounmpo is dealt West and Kevin Durant stays West, it would further ease the East path.
But an East path doesn’t mean an easy path for the Heat and should not be assumed as such by Heat management, even with Tatum and Lillard going down, even with the Cavaliers reeling.
Real work remains.
It is imperative that perspective does not become diluted or muted by an Eastern Conference seemingly ready to offer a second chance.
If there is a moment to be seized, it only can be seized by a mix superior to what exited amid embarrassment last month.
IN THE LANE
BIG NEWS: With the Big3 halfcourt circuit to roll into Kaseya Center on June 29 in the tour’s third stop of the season, the league comprised mostly of former NBA players this past week held its draft, with the Miami 305 expansion team in the first round selecting former Heat nemesis Lance Stephenson, the 34-year-old guard who last was in the NBA in 2021-22 with the Indiana Pacers. In the second and final round of the draft, Miami 305 selected former NBA big man Sean Williams. The Miami 305 entry, which will be coached by Hall of Fame former Los Angeles Laker Michael Cooper, also includes former Heat players Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers, as well as former NBA big man Reggie Evans. Among former Heat players in this season’s Big3 player pool are Shannon Brown and Yakhouba Diawara.
ALTERED REALITY: For weeks, as the Heat attempted to deal Jimmy Butler in January and February, the pushback from Butler’s side was making it clear the preference was to land with the Phoenix Suns, something Heat President Pat Riley all but confirmed in his season-ending comments a week ago. But in the wake of his Golden State Warriors being eliminated from the playoffs, Butler offered a different spin Thursday to his initial run alongside Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. “I mean the way that reports go, it’s all one person said this, one person said that, ’cause I don’t ever really talk to the media, so you’ll never know what’s really going on,” Butler said, agreeing to the type of season-ending media session in San Francisco that he had bypassed in recent years in Miami. “But to end up here is great, to know that Dray and Steph called me and talked to me about what was to happen in the future. and then just being inside this organization, seeing how great it is, how everybody wants everybody to be great, they’re looking out for your best interest like healthwise, basketball-wise, to where you can play basketball at a high level, and then we just got some really good dudes. I truly enjoyed learning from each and every one of these individuals about who they are.”
IDLE TALK: For as good as it was going for Max Strus, with the former Heat forward helping to faceguard the Heat’s Tyler Herro into submission in the opening round of the playoffs, his words came back to bite him in the second round. That’s when Strus sent a text, according to TNT, to teammates ahead of Game 5 against the Indiana Pacers that read, “If you don’t believe, don’t show up for work.” Strus showed up, shot 0 for 9, and the Cavaliers were eliminated with that loss. In the wake of that loss, Strus acknowledged the possibility of a new text chain next season. “I believe in this locker room and this group of guys so much and the hard part about the NBA is you never know when you’re going to get that again,” Strus said. “You’re never going to have the same team again. You don’t know what’s going to happen in the offseason. You might lose guys, your locker room could look different the next year. It was just a year where I think we could have done some big things and we didn’t do it.”
STILL GOING: Yes, that is former Heat forward P.J. Tucker with the New York Knicks in the playoffs. No, Tucker isn’t playing (because Tom Thibodeau barely plays reserves), but his veteran voice continues to resonate. “He’s been great,” Knicks guard Jalen Brunson said, according to the New York Post. “The way he talks, the way he leads. Obviously, he’s been around the league a long time and he has a lot of experience and so when he talks, we listen. So having a guy like that on our team has been remarkable for us. He’s been fantastic since he’s been there.” Tucker, who won a championship with the Bucks in 2021, is one of two players with championship rings on the Knicks roster, with OG Anunoby (Raptors, 2019) the other.
NUMBER
6. Teams to never have had the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft, a list that still includes the Heat. Also on the list: Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Memphis Grizzlies/Vancouver Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder/Seattle SuperSonics and Utah Jazz. The Pacers, however, did have the No. 1 pick in the 1967 ABA draft, selecting Jimmy Walker, who opted for the NBA and never played for the Pacers. And the Nuggets had the No. 1 pick in the 1975 ABA draft, selecting Marvin Webster, who spent one season with Denver in the ABA and one with Denver in the NBA. The Heat’s lottery seed, had they not advanced to the playoffs this season would have been No. 11, the seed that jumped into this year’s top pick for the Dallas Mavericks.
