Many have made an ominous prediction after hearing Bhumjaithai Party secretary-general Chaichanok Chidchob say in parliament that the coalition government is living on borrowed time.
The ruling Pheu Thai Party and Bhumjaithai, its biggest coalition partner, cannot hide their rocky relationship, and this has manifested itself from time to time. The latest example was heard loud and clear in live sessions on various broadcasting platforms.
In a recent House meeting to debate urgent agendas, the general calm was broken by Mr Chaichanok, who took his fellow MPs off guard.
He took to the floor and urged the House to introduce a motion on a comprehensive national plan to mitigate natural disasters in the wake of the Myanmar earthquake that shook Bangkok, and to devise an immediate strategy to cushion the ramifications of global economic uncertainty from Washington's tariff hikes.
Mr Chaichanok credited Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra with demonstrating extraordinary leadership and commitment to public safety causes. The Buri Ram MP pledged to do everything in his power to rally behind the premier. His words had been music to the prime minister's ears except for a stinging twist toward the end of his speech, which threatens to unleash seismic political consequences for the government.
"I declare before parliament that I, Chaichanok Chidchob, the eldest son of Newin and Karuna Chidchob, and in my capacity as Bhumjaithai Party secretary-general, will never agree to the casino-entertainment complex bill, or any similar bills in the future, even those which may be presented by Bhumjaithai, in the country's interest.
"I will never give my due consideration. For what I have reviewed, there are outstanding issues that are immensely more urgent, which warrant our attention," Mr Chaichanok said.
His declaration, although later dismissed as his personal stance by Bhumjathai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, was seen as an assault on coalition unity that is already tenuous.
Pheu Thai stalwarts refused to let Bhumjaithai off the hook and called on the party to withdraw from the government.
An observer said the irony was that these ruling party figures vented their wrath despite knowing that Bhumjaithai's departure would cost the coalition 70 seats and leave it on thin ice.
The figures may have had enough of watching Bhumjaithai turn against their party again and again.
Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, questioned Bhumjaithai's chain of command under Mr Anutin, who also serves as the interior minister.
"Is Mr Anutin or Mr Chaichanok the party leader?" the senior Pheu Thai figure asked.
"We've already had discussions between coalition leaders, with Mr Anutin agreeing on the direction. So, who should I believe now? Mr Chaichanok or Mr Anutin?"
Pheu Thai list MP Adisorn Piengkes slammed Mr Chaichanok for talking "nonsense" for over 30 minutes, ignoring the issue at hand -- the US tariffs on Thai exports.
"If Bhumjaithai cannot align with the coalition's direction, then maybe they should step away. It's simple. Don't stay in the government just to obstruct progress," said Mr Adisorn.
He also called out Mr Chaichanok's use of his lineage -- being the son of Bhumjaithai's spiritual leader Newin Chidchob -- as a way to elevate his position.
The observer noted it was the first time Mr Phumtham and Mr Adisorn, both veteran and well-respected figures in Pheu Thai, had confronted Bhumjaithai verbally.
One compelling reason they were seeing red has to do with Mr Chaichanok being Bhumjaithai's secretary-general. The secretary-general is the top executive, after the leader, who can speak on behalf of the party.
At the same time, both the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai leaders have tried to patch things up.
Mr Anutin and Ms Paetongtarn, who leads Pheu Thai, held a joint press conference to reassure the public their alliance was not about to crumble, as widely speculated.
He said Mr Chaichanok's remarks were his own personal opinions and not the party's official stance, adding he had apologised to Ms Paetongtarn for the statement, which may have caused a misunderstanding.
When asked if Bhumjaithai would give its MPs a free vote on the bill, Mr Anutin said, "No. We will support the government."
He also affirmed that Mr Chaichanok will have to vote with the party.
Mr Anutin said Mr Chaichanok was suffering from stress and should be given a few days' rest following his controversial speech.
Ms Paetongtarn suggested she and her party do not view Mr Chaichanok's statement as an issue, saying she retains a close relationship with him. Defending Mr Chaichanok, the premier suggested confusion may have gotten the better of him.
The observer said Mr Anutin may be premature in saying Mr Chaichanok's casino remarks were a personal view. This sentiment could also be shared by other Bhumjaithai heavyweights.
Uthai Thani MP, Chada Thaiset, said while he has a penchant for gambling and does not object to legalising casinos, the casino-entertainment complex draft bill was being rushed and not well thought through.
The problem stemming from young people and youths freely accessing online gambling represents a myriad of problems that must be dealt with to illustrate the sanctity of the law can be preserved before casinos are made legal, he said.
He also called for a referendum to decide on such a profoundly divisive and controversial issue.
"It's not as though one can roll out casinos on a whim. It doesn't work that way. It needs extensive studies and analyses to be conducted.
"Solid groundwork is in order. We're taking this way too fast," he said.
Before Mr Chada spoke his mind, Somsak Prissananantakul, the father of deputy House speaker Paradorn Prissananantakul and Bhumjaithai executive Korrawee Prissananantakul, appealed to coalition party leaders to pull out of the government after former premier Thaksin Shinawatra reportedly issued a veiled threat that coalition partners may be dumped if they disagreed with the casino-entertainment complex bill.
Shuffling part of the pack
A cabinet reshuffle is being widely predicted to take place this month, although changes will likely be limited to the ruling Pheu Thai Party.
Thaksin: Under legal pressure
Despite repeated denials from senior government figures, the strongest signal yet came from former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the party's alleged de facto leader.
Thaksin was quoted as saying last weekend that if any cabinet changes were to be made, it would involve shuffling positions rather than altering the line-up of coalition parties.
His comments were in response to persistent speculation about a reshuffle amid signs of growing tension between the ruling party and its coalition partner, Bhumjaithai.
A limited reshuffle in the works is believed to have been prompted by public dissatisfaction with some underperforming ministers, as shown in a recent Nida Poll survey. Many respondents expected the commerce minister and the agriculture and cooperatives minister to be replaced.
Among the Pheu Thai ministers predicted to lose their jobs are Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan, Deputy Interior Minister Theerarat Samrejvanich and Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul.
Phumtham Wechayachai is tipped to remain a deputy prime minister but lose his defence minister post. However, he will likely take over at the Commerce Ministry -- the post he held in the Srettha Thavisin administration.
Sutin Klungsang is speculated to make a return to the Defence Ministry, while list MP Anusorn Iamsa-ard is likely to replace Prime Minister's Office Minister Jiraporn Sindhuprai, who could replace Mr Paopoom.
Pheu Thai list-MP Wisut Chainaroon is tipped to replace Ms Theerarat, and there are also rumours that Tourism and Sports Minister Sorawong Thienthong may be dropped from the new line-up.
According to observers, Bhumjaithai, the second-largest party in the government, is off-limits in the much-anticipated reshuffle due to Pheu Thai's concerns over the passage of key pieces of legislation, including the casino-entertainment complex bill, where coalition support is required.
While it is believed there have been some negotiations between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, there is uncertainty over whether Bhumjaithai might "betray" Pheu Thai or undermine its efforts to push ahead with the casino policy, according to Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University.
Tensions between the two parties have been simmering.
The ruling party is believed to be pulling strings in the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) probe against dozens of senators with close ties to Bhumjaithai over alleged vote fixing in last year's Senate election.
The DSI has decided to investigate many of them for alleged money laundering.
Even though Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul shows full support for Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's leadership and respect for her father, Thaksin, he is deemed to have sent a clear message that his party stands with the conservative camp, Mr Olarn said.
Several economic problems remain unresolved, with a growing public perception that the government has not adequately addressed people's hardship, said Mr Olarn.
"The reshuffle is necessary even if it doesn't help [the government] much. Without a better explanation, at least Pheu Thai can show the government is responsive to the people by dropping ministers who have underperformed," he said.
According to Mr Olarn, Thaksin is under legal pressure from the lese majeste case he is facing, which has reportedly restricted his political moves. He is compelled to demonstrate that he is the only one who can deal with the "orange" camp, a reference to the People's Party (PP), seen as a challenge to the conservatives.
On May 29 last year, the attorney-general indicted Thaksin on lese majeste and computer crime charges arising from an interview given to a newspaper in Seoul, South Korea, on Feb 21, 2015.
Thaksin was alleged to have defamed the monarchy while speaking with South Korea's Chosun Ilbo when he claimed privy councillors supported the 2014 coup that ousted the government of his younger sister, fugitive former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
The computer crime charge was due to Thaksin putting information into a computer system that was deemed a threat to national security.
Some analysts viewed the decision to indict Thaksin as a warning from the conservative establishment that the former premier must honour a political deal with the old power groups.
Thaksin returned from self-imposed exile in August 2023 to face jail time on the day Pheu Thai candidate Mr Srettha was endorsed as prime minister. The two major political developments were seen as the result of prior political deals struck between Thaksin and the old power groups.
Mr Olarn said that Thaksin understands that the conservative camp regards the "orange" camp as a greater threat than his own "red" Pheu Thai Party and has sent a message that no one can stave off that threat without him.
